As globalisation folds, where will the economic fault lines split and how deep will they run?
In an eminently clear-sighted reckoning, The Fractured Age lays out the threats and opportunities confronting the world economy over the next decade and maps the uneven blocs that are set to emerge from a world in flux. The geopolitical tectonic plates of the planet have shifted back into action and the increased pressures their movements are bringing to bear will stress all our existing financial and commercial structures, habits and orthodoxies.
In a fractured world friends will matter. As the US and China pull apart, it will become increasingly difficult for governments to remain neutral, causing countries to coalesce into two blocs: one that aligns primarily with Washington and another that aligns primarily with Beijing. Policy choices within these blocs will be shaped increasingly by geopolitical considerations. Yet the global economy is not splitting down the middle. The relative size of the blocs and their economic diversity will play a major role in the reorganization of world trade, global supply chains, international investment, transfers of technology and securing supplies of critical minerals.
As the world lurches again on its axis, and a new world order creaks into being, determining which nations will thrive, which will decline, and which companies likewise, will become essential for policymakers seeking firm ground. And how should householders, citizens, executives and law-makers alter their expectations and their behaviours to secure their prosperity?
As Chief Economist for the world's leading provider of independent macroeconomic and market research, Neil Shearing's weekly analytical bulletin is read by thousands of the world's most important bankers, investors, pension-fund managers, civil servants and academics. Now he brings to bear his exceptionally sensible, data-driven forecast for the economic peaks and rifts in the fractured age unfolding.